Outlook November 2023

In this latest edition of Outlook we provide an update for the 2023/24 levy as well as a first look at the 2024/25 forecast.

This information is accompanied by a message from our Interim Chief Executive, Martyn Beauchamp and a short animation, which includes highlights from the report.

Please see the full Outlook report below. Further industry updates will be provided in our January and spring 2024 publications.

The 2023/24 levy remains unchanged

The total levy remains as forecast earlier this year at £270m. As the current compensation forecast (£435m) remains broadly similar to May’s Outlook, we do not expect to need to request any additional levies from firms during this financial year.

Any surpluses in each class will be carried forward and used to offset the levy payable by firms in 2024/25.

The initial levy forecast for 2024/25

The current forecast for the next financial year is £415m. This figure is an early indication and subject to change. It is based on our expected compensation costs totalling approximately £457m during 2024/25.

Although the levy is expected to increase in 2024/25, due to the lower surpluses carried over from the previous financial year, compensation costs remain relatively stable. For the most recent three years, including the forecast for 2024/25, compensation is between £400m – £460m.

We continually review our forecasting and will keep firms informed of any major developments that may impact the levy.